Being challenged by prescience

Last week Steve Jobs put one more nail in Adobe’s Flash coffin, further confirmed with Microsoft’s support to H.264 codec for HTML video on Internet Explorer 9. What i find amusing was the fact i left serious Flash development almost 3 years ago, becoming increasingly interested in open standarts, not only XHTML or HTML5, but also on the interoperability between systems, almost as important as “openess”.

Trying to figure out trends is on of the key assets for a creative technologist like me. Dealing with social media before it became popular, playing with Flash when it was still version 3, getting curious about OAuth in 2007, or betting that Facebook would become huge in Portugal, i wonder if this isn’t only a confirmation bias.
So, what are the tea leaves that i’ve been reading lately?

  • Digital Curation
    Steve Rubel was one of the first to highlight it, but now we’re seeing it at a micro-level, with tweets becoming the new quotes. Who will organize the best content? Or maybe it’s just an exit strategy for journalists.
  • DIY@home
    The main theme at Shift10, this trend has been building up since the maker manifesto. What will happen when movements like Fabrication become accessible to the regular Joe?
  • Portable profiles
    Taking our digital identity TVs or cars, plugging our Facebook profile to our train seat, downloading a ticket using RFID authentication, adjusting enviromental data through sensors, it all feels to much like science fiction. Or maybe not.
  • Democratized video publishing
    What happened with blogging will happen again with video. We just need cheaper cameras and easier video linear editors.
  • Ad rating
    Ad people be afraid. We’re seeing it already with the like button on Facebook, and it’s not far fetched to expand the notion to all online advertising. Because clicks don’t matter neither your Cannes Award. It’s the consumer, stupid.

Maybe i’m dead wrong in a few years, but prescience delivers great new challenges.